Financial firm executive links economic rebound to housing market - Business First of Columbus:

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With housing at its most affordable in the last 35 Greiner said inventory currently about nine and ahalf months, should subside The six-month mark is ideal in a sounx economy. But in Phoenix, wherwe foreclosures and home depreciations continue to batter the a local recovery will trail anationak rebound, he said. “It will probably be a littlwe slower,” Greiner said minutes after concluding his economic forecast atthe Ritz-Carlton in centralp Phoenix. Preliminary estimates show themediaj Phoenix-area home price at $115,000 in May, comparablew to levels in October 1998, according to the -Repeat Saless Index.
Greiner’s assumptions conflict with BBVA Compass’ quarterly economi c report published this week that saidSunbelrt states, including Arizona, are poisedr to recover from the recession faster than other regionzs of the country. Despite market gains through the firsy three months ofthe year, Greineer expects a substantial portion will be lost over the next few as the dollar loses its valuer and corporate profits remain “flat on their However, he said the country has moved out of the worsft bear market since the Great and “there’s room for this markeg to run.” He said UMB is advising clients to move moneg away from the U.S.
dollar and into emerging countries in South Americaand Asia. Similatr to the late 1970s andearly 80s, the countrgy is mired in a structural recession, characterized by a broad and widespread malaise that causes global In a structural recession, the economy undergoes a fundamentakl shift as it comes out of it. In the earlh 80s, the economy became consumption based. In this downturn, the governmen t has taken a much bigger role ineconomicc activity, and likely will become a biggert factor in the Gross Domestic Product. At the end of 2008, governmen t consumption expenditures and gross investment accountedfor 20.2 percenr of GDP.
“The government is becoming a bigger part of theeconomicc pie,” Greiner said. More than 100 private bankinfg clients and potential customers attendedthe forecast.